NBE’s Final Q1 FX Auction Falls $1.51 Million Short of $125 Million Offer
The National Bank of Ethiopia completed its first-quarter foreign exchange auction programme on Wednesday, September 23, 2026, offering 125 million US dollars in a fourth and final scheduled sale that again fell short of full subscription, the second straight round in which demand trailed supply.
Commercial banks submitted bids totaling 123.49 million US dollars against the 125 million US dollars on offer at Foreign Exchange Auction No. 29, leaving 1.51 million US dollars unallocated, about 1.2 percent of the amount available. All 27 participating banks received allocations.
The weighted average rate of successful bids came in at 160.2297 birr per US dollar. The marginal, or cut-off, rate settled at 158.0715 birr, which was also the lowest accepted bid, while the highest bid reached 160.8869 birr. The $123.49 million allocated was worth roughly Br19.79 billion at the weighted average rate.
The shortfall was narrower than the previous round on September 9, when bids of 120 million US dollars covered only 96 percent of the 125 million US dollars on offer and 20 banks took part. That auction cleared at a weighted average of 160.5357 birr per US dollar, with a marginal rate of 158.3500 birr. Wednesday’s result showed broader participation, up to 27 banks from 20, alongside a smaller shortfall and a slightly stronger weighted average rate for the birr.
The back-to-back undersubscriptions mark a sharp reversal from the acute competition seen earlier in the quarter, when bids ran to several multiples of the amount on offer. Banks’ bidding behavior can shift quickly between rounds depending on the size of prior allocations, import-payment schedules and the timing of the central bank’s own interventions, so a single result does not on its own establish a lasting change in demand.
First-Quarter Auction Programme in Full
Wednesday’s sale completed a four-auction, 500-million-US-dollar regular programme that the central bank ran across the first quarter of the 2026/27 fiscal year, offering 125 million US dollars in each round on a roughly biweekly schedule. The full sequence, including the separate special auction conducted in between, is set out below.
Table 1: Q1 FY2026/27 Foreign Exchange Auction Results
| Auction / Date | Offer($m) | Bids($m) | BanksBidding | BanksSuccessful | Weighted Avg(Birr/USD) | Marginal Rate(Birr/USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12 — regular | 125 | 470.17 | 28 | 9 | 161.7994 | — |
| Aug 20 — special | 500 | 710.14 | 22 | 21 | 160.2144 | — |
| Aug 26 — No. 27 | 125 | 170.51 | 5 | 2 | 160.2070 | 160.1833 |
| Sept 9 — No. 28 | 125 | 120.00 | 20 | 20 | 160.5357 | 158.3500 |
| Sept 23 — No. 29 | 125 | 123.49 | 27 | 27 | 160.2297 | 158.0715 |
The quarter opened on August 12 with an auction of 125 million US dollars that drew bids of 470.17 million US dollars, close to four times the amount on offer, from 28 participating banks, only nine of which secured allocations. The weighted average rate cleared at 161.7994 birr per US dollar, the highest of the quarter.
Eight days later, the central bank conducted a separate 500-million-US-dollar special auction outside the regular quarterly series, drawing bids of 710.14 million US dollars from 22 banks, 21 of which received allocations, at a weighted average rate of 160.2144 birr per US dollar. Combined, the August 12 regular auction and the August 20 special auction injected 625 million US dollars into the banking system within eight days.
Demand cooled sharply when the regular calendar resumed on August 26. Only five banks took part, submitting bids of 170.51 million US dollars against the same 125-million-US-dollar offer, with two securing allocations at a weighted average rate of 160.2070 birr per US dollar, on an unusually narrow bid spread of less than three cents.
The September 9 auction then became the first regular round in the series to be explicitly reported as undersubscribed, followed by Wednesday’s round, which narrowed but did not close that gap.
Rate and Demand Trends
Across the four regular auctions, the weighted average rate moved from 161.7994 birr on August 12 to 160.2070 birr on August 26, then to 160.5357 birr on September 9, before easing to 160.2297 birr on Wednesday, holding in a narrow band around 160 birr per US dollar for the balance of the quarter after the initial spike.
Aggregate demand, by contrast, fell steadily: from bids of 470.17 million US dollars in the oversubscribed August 12 round to bids below the offered amount in both of the final two auctions. The average bid per participating bank declined correspondingly. The sharp fall in bidding followed the August 20 special auction, although the extent to which that sale reduced subsequent demand cannot be established from auction data alone.
Other factors, including banks’ birr liquidity positions, their expectations for future exchange-rate movements, the volume of documented import requests and the availability of foreign currency through exports and remittances, could also be contributing to the recent bidding pattern.
Table 2: Quarter at a Glance
| Q1 FY2026/27 Summary | Figure |
|---|---|
| Regular auctions held | 4 (Aug 12, Aug 26, Sept 9, Sept 23) |
| Total offered via regular auctions | 500 million US dollars |
| Amount offered, special auction (Aug 20) | 500 million US dollars |
| Combined amount offered, Q1 | 1 billion US dollars |
| High weighted average rate | 161.7994 Birr/USD (Aug 12) |
| Low weighted average rate | 160.2070 Birr/USD (Aug 26) |
| Rounds undersubscribed | 2 (Sept 9, Sept 23) |
Taken together, the central bank offered a combined 500 million US dollars through the four regular auctions and a further 500 million US dollars through the August special sale, for a total advertised foreign exchange auction supply of 1 billion US dollars in the first quarter of the fiscal year.
Source: National Bank of Ethiopia, Foreign Exchange Auction results.