JPMorgan Lifts Gold Outlook to $4,500 as Banks See Prices Near $6,300 by 2026

JPMorgan has increased its long-term gold price outlook to $4,500 per ounce, marking a 15% upward revision from its previous estimate of approximately $3,900 per ounce. The bank, however, kept its end-2026 forecast unchanged at $6,300, signalling expectations that prices could remain elevated over the next two years.

In a note to clients, the bank cited continued central bank accumulation of gold, diversification away from U.S. Treasury holdings, and a gradual shift in global reserves away from the U.S. dollar toward alternative currencies, including the Chinese renminbi. According to JPMorgan, these structural adjustments in global reserve management are reinforcing gold’s role as a strategic asset rather than a short-term hedge.

The upward revision aligns with broader bullish sentiment across major financial institutions. Macquarie Group expects gold to average $4,323 in 2026, with first-quarter prices projected at around $4,590. Wells Fargo Investment Institute sees gold reaching $6,100–$6,300 by end-2026, while UBS has raised its 2026 target to $6,200. Deutsche Bank projects gold could approach $6,000 next year, and Goldman Sachs expects prices near $5,400 by December 2026. Morgan Stanley maintains a 2026 average forecast of $4,600, with a bull-case scenario of $5,700. The clustering of forecasts around the $5,000–$6,300 range suggests strong institutional conviction that gold’s rally has structural support.

Gold prices have already risen sharply. The metal is up roughly 20% this year, after surging more than 64% in 2025, and recently traded above $5,200 per ounce, close to record highs reached in January. The gains reflect sustained demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and currency realignments.

For Ethiopia, sustained high gold prices could translate into stronger export earnings, improved foreign exchange inflow,s and greater investment interest in the mining sector, potentially supporting macroeconomic stability if production levels remain steady.

Source: Reuters