Ethiopia Leads Sub-Saharan Growth at 9.2%, but DR Congo Claims Its Crown as Region’s 5th-Largest Economy
The IMF’s April 2026 Regional Economic Outlook reveals a two-speed Africa: reform-driven nations soar, while aid cuts and the Middle East conflict force a downgrade of the regional forecast to 4.3%.
Ethiopia has once again emerged as the standout performer among Sub-Saharan Africa’s fastest-growing economies, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting real GDP growth of 9.2% for the 2025/26 fiscal year — more than double the regional average. But in a historic first revealed in the IMF’s April 2026 Regional Economic Outlook, Ethiopia has been overtaken by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as the fifth-largest economy on the continent, slipping to sixth place in Africa’s GDP rankings.
A Region Under Pressure: The 4.3% Revised Forecast
The IMF revised its Sub-Saharan Africa growth forecast downward to 4.3% for 2026, a cut of 0.3 percentage points from pre-war projections. Speaking at the IMF’s 2026 Spring Meetings, Abebe Selassie, Director of the African Department, cited the escalating Middle East conflict as a major external shock — driving up oil, gas, and fertilizer prices, raising shipping costs, and squeezing tourism and remittances.
Compounding the pressure is what the IMF has described as an “unprecedented” structural decline in foreign aid. Unlike past aid cycles, where donors cut back and eventually returned, the Fund warns this shift appears permanent — hitting fragile and low-income states hardest, countries that depend on aid not merely as a supplement but as a core pillar of budget financing, healthcare, and food assistance.
Ethiopia: Africa’s Growth Champion — Again
Despite the regional headwinds, Ethiopia’s growth trajectory remains exceptional. The IMF attributes this performance to the government’s Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda (HGER), supported by a 48-month Extended Credit Facility arrangement approved in 2024. The program has delivered better-than-anticipated results: declining inflation (from 26.6% in 2023/24 down to a projected 11.9% in 2025/26), improved fiscal positions, and growing foreign exchange reserves projected to exceed US$3 billion for the first time.
The IMF also approved a US$261 million disbursement to Ethiopia in January 2026, bringing total program funding to approximately US$2.183 billion. Agriculture, industry, and services are all expanding, with gold mining and coffee exports serving as key growth engines. All sectors — industry, agriculture, and services — are expected to expand through this period.
IMF 2026 Growth Forecasts — Selected Sub-Saharan Economies
| Country | IMF Growth Forecast 2026 |
| Ethiopia | 9.2% (fiscal year 2025/26) |
| Uganda | 7.5% |
| Rwanda | 7.2% |
| Benin | 7.0% |
| Côte d’Ivoire | 6.2% |
| DR Congo | 5.9% |
| Tanzania | 5.9% |
| Sub-Saharan Africa (avg) | 4.3% |
| South Africa | 1.0% |
Source: IMF April 2026 Regional Economic Outlook, Sub-Saharan Africa
DR Congo Overtakes Ethiopia: The Mineral Boom Reshapes African Rankings
You are right to take notice: the Democratic Republic of Congo has made one of the most dramatic moves in Africa’s economic rankings. Fuelled by a surge in mineral exports — particularly cobalt and copper, both critical to global electric vehicle and battery supply chains — the DRC has displaced Ethiopia to claim the continent’s fifth-largest economy by GDP size.
The DRC’s economic ascent reflects the extraordinary global demand for transition minerals. As major economies race to secure supply chains for green technology, the DRC’s vast cobalt reserves (it accounts for roughly 70% of global production) have turned it into an economic powerhouse almost overnight. Its IMF-projected growth rate of 5.9% for 2026 is solid, though far below Ethiopia’s scorching pace.
This represents a structural shift, not a cyclical blip. Ethiopia’s slippage to sixth place does not reflect a weakening economy — it reflects the explosive resource-driven expansion of the DRC. Both nations are growing; Congo is simply growing its GDP base faster in absolute dollar terms due to the commodity windfall.
Africa’s Top 10 Largest Economies by GDP — 2025/2026
| Rank | Country | Key Driver |
| 1 | Nigeria | Oil, services & large consumer base |
| 2 | South Africa | Finance, mining & manufacturing |
| 3 | Egypt | Energy, infrastructure & services |
| 4 | Algeria | Hydrocarbon exports & energy prices |
| 5 ▲ | DR Congo | Mineral exports: cobalt & copper (NEW ENTRY) |
| 6 ▼ | Ethiopia | Reform-driven growth above 6% |
| 7 | Morocco | Tourism, agriculture & renewable energy |
| 8 | Kenya | Services, tech & regional trade hub |
| 9 | Tanzania | Agriculture, tourism & LNG sector |
| 10 | Angola | Oil production & reconstruction |
▲ = Moved up | ▼ = Moved down | Source: IMF April 2026 Regional Economic Outlook
Risks on the Horizon for Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s growth story, while compelling, is not without vulnerabilities. The IMF highlights several risks that could erode its hard-won gains:
Currency Pressure: The Ethiopian birr remains under strain. As of early 2026, official bank rates stood near 151 birr per US dollar, while parallel markets reached above 180 birr — a persistent gap that feeds inflation.
Aid Dependency: Like many low-income African states, Ethiopia is exposed to the structural decline in foreign aid now described by the IMF as a permanent shift rather than a temporary reduction.
Security Challenges: Active insurgencies in the Amhara and Oromia regions, and the fragility of the Tigray peace process, remain major wildcards for investor confidence and economic stability.
Debt Restructuring: Negotiations over Ethiopia’s US$1 billion Eurobond restructuring are ongoing. In early 2026, the Official Creditor Committee (OCC) co-chaired by France and China, declined initial restructuring terms, adding uncertainty.
The Broader African Outlook: Two-Speed Continent
The IMF’s Spring 2026 report paints a picture of a continent increasingly divided between agile reformers and those left behind. Ethiopia, Uganda (7.5%), Rwanda (7.2%), Benin (7.0%), and Côte d’Ivoire (6.2%) are successfully translating macroeconomic discipline and targeted investment into sustained expansion. In contrast, South Africa — the continent’s most industrialised economy — is forecast to grow by a meagre 1.0%, weighed down by structural inefficiencies and energy challenges.
Despite the downward revision to 4.3%, the IMF’s Africa director struck a measured note of optimism. The region retains powerful structural tailwinds: a youthful and growing population, rapid urbanisation, and expanding digital infrastructure. The responsible adoption of artificial intelligence in agriculture, healthcare, and public services, the IMF suggests, could be transformative — provided governments invest in the foundations of electricity, connectivity, and skills.
“The region has weathered crisis after crisis — and has kept reforming. The gains of 2025 are real, and they are worth defending.”— Abebe Selassie, IMF Director, African Department, April 2026
For Ethiopia, the IMF’s conclusion is clear: the country is not simply surviving — it is adapting and leading. Its challenge now is to sustain reform momentum, manage external vulnerabilities, and ensure that record growth rates translate into inclusive development and meaningful poverty reduction for its 111 million citizens.